Reducing aviation emissions by optimizing air traffic management (ATM) was the main promise of the Single European Sky reform (SES2+), which aviation industry representatives say failed to achieve its main goals after countries vetoed it. But ATM operators can still succeed where politicians have failed by achieving air traffic optimization on their own. That’s the goal of the new ATM Master Plan, adopted on Thursday.

Wrong direction: “CO2 emissions for intra-European flights increased by 9 million tons in 2023 (up 12 percent) relative to 2022,” says the 90-page document, produced by the SESAR Joint Undertaking, a public-private partnership.

Savings targets: According to the document, a better ATM could save up to 400 million tons of CO2 by 2050, “with 100 million tons of CO2 already saved by 2035 and 200 million tons by 2040. This is equivalent to close to 3 years’ worth of total CO2 emissions from aviation in Europe.”

Yes, but how? SESAR aims to achieve trajectory-based operations allowing aircraft to navigate “very precisely along fuel-efficient routes,” but also to use machine learning, artificial intelligence, and big data analytics to make ATM operate smarter and safer.

Machines to replace voices: “Voice communication will no longer be the primary means of communication, as machine-to-machine applications will manage most routine tasks,” the document says. The plan envisions human-machine teaming where “air traffic controllers, air traffic safety electronics personnel, flight crew and operators will team up with the machines to deliver the highest quality of service.” The ultimate goal is a dynamic airspace that will allow “the near-real-time configuration of airspace, and the system will be fully automated for certain phases of flight.”

It won’t be easy: The ATM sector faces huge challenges, starting with traffic, which is expected to grow by about 5 percent a year through 2030, increasing from 11 million flights in 2019 to about 16 million flights in 2050. “The airspace will become more complex to manage, as new types of air vehicles — such as zero-emissions aircraft, drones, and military and high-altitude aircraft — share the sky,” the plan says. Not to mention that “the Russian war against Ukraine has reduced the airspace available for civil aviation in Europe by around 20 percent.”