The SESAR programme is key for achieving the single European Transport Area and enabling smart economic growth for Europe. SESAR will provide an effective remedy to air transport capacity bottlenecks, fills gaps in the air traffic management system, enables significant reduction of CO2 emissions, increases safety, and reduces overall costs. SESAR benefits all EU Member States and extends beyond the air transport industry.
This Mc Kinsey study provides a quantification of the impact of SESAR on the EU economy, society and environment based on the European ATM Master Plan targets. It is based on a specific macroeconomic methodology reviewed by industry and economic experts from the European Commission, OECD and Eurocontrol as well as from air transport actors such as Lufthansa, Air France, Airbus, etc. It is addressed to the Air Transport community and the representatives of the EU and Member States.
The results of the macroeconomic methodology applied to SESAR implementation detailed in the report show that the timely, effective and efficient implementation of SESAR will have a significant positive impact. As such, SESAR is expected to contribute directly to at least 3 of the 5 core goals of the EC‟s “Europe 2020” strategy, namely: creating employment, improving European R&D and helping fight climate change. More specifically, at a EU27 level, over the period 2013-2030, SESAR is expected to have an:
Impact on the economy
As air traffic is an enabler of economic growth, SESAR creates a combined positive impact on GDP of € 419 bn over the period (0.16% of combined EU GDP over that period), with 41% of the benefit generated by the direct effects of SESAR and 59% from effects on suppliers and third parties. The economic benefits of SESAR implementation are shared among European Union Member States and contribute as much as 2 basis points of the yearly expected economic growth.
Impact on employment
SESAR creates approximately 42 000 additional jobs in the major air transport industries. Employment created by the indirect and induced impacts of SESAR would add another 116 000 and 170 000 jobs respectively, taking the overall job creation generated by SESAR to an estimated 328 000. Note that the effect of shorter flight times and increased ATM efficiency on employment is largely derived from the increased number of flights enabled by SESAR.
Impact on mobility
For passengers, SESAR means flight times shortened by approximately 10%, 9 minutes per flight on average, as well as 50% fewer cancellations and delays, an increased predictability and punctuality on arrival and departures, plus a tenfold increase in safety.
The additional flight capacity enabled by SESAR would allow continued mobility of people and goods within the European Economic Area and with the rest of the World. Continued mobility and convenience would help to reinforce the EU internal market, as well as promote greater EU cohesion.
If the civil airspace users pass on their savings to customers due to increased price competition, this could lead to a reduction in fares of up to € 5 per ticket on average, with a relatively unchanged total impact on GDP (at a price elasticity level of -1). The direct benefits identified from SESAR would shift partially towards indirect and induced effects in this scenario.
Impact on the environment and CO2 emissions
SESAR helps to achieve carbon-neutral growth, compared to a situation in which no new ATM technologies and systems would be implemented. It eliminates a net amount of 50 million tons of CO2 emissions during the 2013-2030 period – equivalent to the annual emissions generated by 5 million EU citizens. In addition, despite the additional air traffic created, SESAR would have a positive net effect on total CO2 emissions in the period from 2013 to 2030.
Overall SESAR presents an important innovative and technological component with a high share of resulting benefits shared among a variety of sectors in the economy such as transport, tourism, while the impact on the ATM equipment manufacturing industries remains limited to less than 10% of total benefits.
The magnitude of SESAR benefits is very sensitive to the timeliness and effectiveness of its implementation. Any negative departure from the timeline for implementing SESAR set out in the European ATM Master Plan, would put significant benefits at risk. A 10 year delay would result in loss of benefits estimated at € 268 bn of GDP (of which € 124 bn direct), the non-creation of 189 000 jobs, and the loss of 55-million-tons of CO2 emissions saving. A desynchronized implementation of SESAR, would result in the loss of around € 117 bn of GDP (of which € 62 bn direct), the non-creation of 72 000 jobs and a 35-million-ton reduction in CO2 emissions saving.
The EU-wide implementation of the first new generation SESAR capabilities is planned for 2013. This emphasizes the importance and urgency of taking appropriate policy decisions at Institutional level, Member States and European Parliament, on governance and funding for the SESAR deployment phase.