Analysis shows that controlling both CO2 emissions and non-CO2 effects has the potential to double the benefits available from reducing carbon emissions alone. Non-CO2 effects such as contrail cirrus clouds (ice crystals that form behind aircraft) and nitrogen oxide (NOx)-induced changes of ozone and methane upset the radiative balance of the atmosphere. They are strongly dependent on the weather and vary considerably according to atmospheric conditions such as air temperature and altitude.
Every aircraft has access to weather information, and it is the expansion of this interface with meteorological data that provides the opportunity to develop climate-optimised trajectories in collaboration with air traffic control and supported by advanced meteorological data products.
FlyATM4E identified those weather situations and aircraft trajectories that lead to a robust climate impact reduction despite uncertainties in atmospheric science, which can be characterized by ensemble probabilistic forecasts. Planning of these climate-optimized aircraft trajectories requires air traffic management to use spatially and temporally resolved information on the magnitude of the climate effects associated to aviation emissions during the trajectory planning process. The FlyATM4E solution relies on prototypic algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) to derive such climate impact information for flight planning directly from operational meteorological weather forecast data. By combining the individual aCCFs of water vapor, NOx and contrail-cirrus, i.e. merged non-CO2, it becomes possible to generate aCCFs that describe the overall climate impact of non-CO2 aviation emissions and identify weather situations with high mitigation potential, including an uncertainty assessment. The analysis of sample flights showed different changes in average temperature response with respect to cost or climate optimum and trade-off trajectories within the set of pareto-optimal solutions.
These results suggest that applying these enabling solutions have the potential to reduce the aviation climate footprint by low or no additional costs.
Benefits
- Identifies weather situations with high mitigation potential
- Identifies climate-optimised aircraft trajectories
- Demonstrates mitigation potential non-CO2 effects
