7.2. Investment needs

The investments calculated in this section represent the deployment of the vision across the ECAC region, excluding research and operational expenditure. Figure 14 indicates an aggregated investment of EUR 25.5 billion between 2025 and 2050 by all stakeholders (i.e. crewed and uncrewed civil and military, and Network Manager). Minor residual investments are expected between 2046 and 2050, mainly addressing aircraft modifications. In addition, the roll-out of phase C by 2035 includes one-off costs (write-offs) linked to reallocating resources to help secure the timely implementation of the new approach to service delivery (SDO 8) and CNS optimisation (SDO 9), which in the long run will reduce the overall cost of rolling out SESAR.

Figure 14: Cumulative investment needs to deploy SESAR

Figure 14: Cumulative investment needs to deploy SESAR

Phases A–B (CP 1)

The remaining investment needed to fully deploy CP1 (phases A and B) is estimated at up to EUR 1.2 billion (a quarter of the total investment in CP1). An estimated 90 % of these investments (EUR 1.1 billion) are required to finalise their deployment on the ground by the end of 2027. The remaining 10 % (EUR 100 million) is allocated to airspace user fleet equipage between 2028 and 2045.

Phase C (strategic deployment objectives)

The investment effort needed to deploy SDOs covering phase C is estimated at EUR 11.4 billion between 2025 and 2035. In addition, EUR 3.7 billion is estimated as write-offs to accelerate the transition to the new service delivery model and CNS optimisation.

ANSPs play a pivotal role in accelerating the market uptake of SDO-related solutions. As illustrated in Figure 15, their investments in this phase correspond to investment planning in the context of the SES performance and charging scheme, starting in reference period 4 (RP4) with a total of EUR 4.0 billion investment for SDOs. The bulk of ANSP investments are expected to occur in the next reference period RP5, requiring an estimated EUR 8.3 billion. Despite the lower level of investment envisaged for other major stakeholders, their contribution will be key to increasing the overall performance benefits. These capital expenditure (CAPEX) volumes are, broadly speaking, in line with historic CAPEX volumes for ANSPs (1); however, SESAR investment needs may put pressure on other CAPEX-intensive investments not related to the Master Plan (e.g. towers, buildings and facilities).
 

Figure 15: ANSP investments

Figure 15: ANSP investments

Phase D

The investment effort for the deployment of phase D between 2035 and 2045 is estimated at one third of all the cumulative investment needs (i.e. EUR 9.2 billion), in line with the assumptions made in the 2020 edition of the Master Plan. Approximately EUR 2.9 billion will be dedicated to U3 and U4 services; U-space service providers and drone operators are expected to be the major investors.


(1)          According to the Performance Review Body of the Single European Sky’s 2023 annual monitoring report, which covers the SES area (comprising Member States, Norway and Switzerland – not the whole ECAC area which is the geographical scope of the Master Plan), in reference period 3 of the performance and charging scheme the total EU-wide en route and terminal CAPEX allocated to air navigation services included in performance plans amounted to EUR 5.2 billion.