7.4 Sensitivity analysis
A sensitivity analysis confirms that the benefits of implementing SESAR greatly exceed its costs to all operational actors in ATM, even under scenarios of 0 % growth, significant cost overruns and delays in deployment, or if any of the projected benefits are substantially overestimated (Figure 18).
Figure 18: Sensitivity analysis for phase D
Reductions in fuel efficiency and fuel prices have a relatively minor effect on benefits. By contrast, the benefits are positively influenced by an accelerated deployment of phase D and higher traffic forecasts, particularly compared with a zero-growth scenario after 2040 (i.e. a pessimistic scenario). In this regard, changes in benefits are not symmetric, highlighting a higher positive elasticity. This indicates the need to significantly shorten the innovation cycle in ATM, affecting both the development (time to market) and deployment (market uptake) of SESAR Solutions, as highlighted in Section 4.3.