7.1 Expected benefits and impact

Achieving the performance ambitions set out in the vision (Section 3.2) is essential for the aviation sector, as they represent one of the few viable short- to medium-term technological pathways towards net-zero European aviation, as identified by the Destination 2050 report (1). Beyond climate protection, these advancements promise substantial direct benefits for all stakeholders in the aviation value chain. Importantly, they also serve citizens by enabling aviation to connect people and transport goods, while supporting a wide range of applications beyond transport, such as in defence and security and in the digital economy (e.g. drone-enabled services). They add value by ensuring speed, predictability, reliability and resilience within a global network, over any distance, while minimising the impact on the environment.

This benefit assessment therefore covers 2025–2050 (2), using 2023 performance levels as a baseline, which reflect near pre-COVID-19 traffic levels. To adopt a conservative approach, the actual performance inefficiencies observed in 2023 were considered to represent the maximum benefit pool achievable through the implementation of SESAR, even though it is widely recognised that system performance would deteriorate further without SESAR. The projected increase in benefits over time is consistent with the planned roll-out of CP1 and phases C and D of the Digital European Sky vision.

For CP1, the benefits are well documented (3). The benefits for phase C are calculated based on SESAR validation exercises and are enhanced by a network impact assessment performed by the Network Manager to provide the most accurate future benefit projections. For phase D, which is still in its early development stages, benefits have been assessed from the top down based on expert judgement.

Monetised benefits

Table 14 provides an overview of the performance improvements that can be monetised. The STATFOR long-term traffic forecast (April 2022) (4) is used as a reference, with a base traffic scenario of + 57 % and a high-traffic scenario of + 92 % by 2050 compared with 2023. The ambitions for phase D are set to provide optimal performance, aiming for an en route air traffic flow management (ATFM) delay of 0.35 minutes per flight and eliminating any fuel inefficiency. These ambitions surpass the current regulatory target of 0.5 minutes of en-route ATFM delay per flight (5). These values consider trade-offs and interdependencies, which limit the possibility of achieving maximum efficiency in all performance areas, as documented by the Performance Review Body and its 2023 performance review report. The ranges provided for airspace and airport capacity indicate potential fluctuations in line with uncertainties in long-term traffic demand and the need to maintain current safety and security levels, especially with the introduction of commercial drone flights. The analysis assumes that there will be no increase in accidents involving ATM / air navigation service contributions and that security incidents causing critical disruptions to service provision will be prevented.